Politics and finance, thats too much romance

Suck one PML(N)

2010-09-03T16:38:00.003+05:00

I never thought I would enjoy watching Pakistani news channels so much. The person that I loathe the most happens to be a journalist. See the irony? But over the past 1 week, its been utter pleasure and entertainment. PPP jiyalas will not agree with me but they are not setting the rules for discussion anymore, are they? On the contrary, the talk shows are focusing on what Altaf Bhai, the man of the hour, thinks of corruption, feudalism and martial law.

These talk shows have reinforced my belief that the nation suffers from short term memories and selective recall especially the Punjabis. The allegations that they have leveled against MQM are preposterous to say the least and could be suicidal for them if someone like Abbas Haider Rizvi retaliated. Khawaja Asif knows this too well now and he was smart enough to avoid the fiery rhetoric of Raza Haroon. Some of the common allegations leveled by PML(N) and PTI are

They are inviting dictatorship and that’s not good:

Of course they are inviting dictatorship and agreed its not good. But convince me how corruption and feudalism is. They are not inviting dictatorship to get rid of democracy. The real enemy lies in corruption and feudalism and that needs to be taken care of.

They are military’s puppet:

I don’t think so. That bald bastard tried everything to dismantle this party and went so far as initiating a military operation. The party survived. If it really was a military’s pet, they could have put an end to this party without killing anyone.

Speaking of military pets, lets discuss the credentials of Mard-e-Momin

Sports minister during Zia’s regime
Finance Minister of Punjab during Zia’s regime
Called Zia “abba jan”

And as if that was not enough

Initiated military operation against MQM.
Used the state machinery and murdered 5000 activists, and
Fabricated at least 2500 cases against activists who survived through Rana Maqbool.

They have been in coalition for the last 19 years:

Democracy is a slow beast. Everybody deserves a chance and when you realize that things are not headed in the right direction, you reconsider your stance. Instead of walking away from your partners, the right thing to do is stay in coalition and start talking about change. Pretty much the same thing that Bhai did.

Besides we were in coalition because this is what that bald bastard had to say about MQM.

They never did anything good:

Yeah right. I wonder what Mustafa Kamal did to make it into the list of the best mayors?

They are terrorists:

Lick my stick. What do we call you? Saints? We are terrorists because that’s how you, your operation and Rana Maqbool labeled us. But who is responsible for the extra judicial killing of 5000 activists and having a soft corner for the Taliban/militants? Speaking of which, you guys are paying a price for all that now, aren’t you?

Jeay Jeay Jeay Mohajir

2010-08-24T16:19:00.002+05:00

I have been looking forward to this day for a while. It was only a matter of time that these unholy alliances had to break. One only has to read the writings on the wall.
Altaf Hussain has already threatened the coalition partners of dire consequences should they refuse to mend their ways. In a related story, Nawaz Shrif wetted his shalwar and ran to the Chief Justice to save his ass. Speaking to reporters on his way, he incessantly chastised dictatorship and military rule until some one pointed out that he too was a progeny of a dictator. That lousy chau-paya hypocrite. Get out of this country and take your fake-degree lot with you. I am sure Saudi Arabia needs some chauffeurs to drive their children around and carry their bags to school. And Tehmina Daultana will make an awesome maasi scrubbing off floors, doing dishes, farting, stealing food etc.
The PPP leadership is in the country and can't seem to cope with the imminent threat of failed coalition. They have decided that they will do what they have been doing for the last 3 years. Nothing.
I don't understand how someone can still ask for democracy. As an old saying goes "zaban-e-khalq Naqqara-e-Khuda". I don't remember aytime when the nation unanimously rejected democracy as a form of government. But this time they have.

Aha!

2009-10-07T20:41:00.004+06:00

So Lucky Cement, as predicted, struck the upper lock today at PKR 84.26. But now is not the time to sell. Hold on to it. This scrip has to hit PKR 90. A P/E multiple of over 6 is more appropriate for this one.
And then it was this news Dawn that caught my attention. Yet another prediction comes true. US had this coming.
I feel like a sage today.

A Theological Perspective

2009-10-05T23:31:00.003+06:00

Its difficult to have a debate now a days on theological issues unless someone wants to risk being labeled a Taliban by some "enlightened" moderate. Its about time the open minded people stopped acting like Taliban in their reckless rejection of their ideas and started acting as real open minded people, listening to opposing views, with out calling names. Open mindedness means being open to other views. Duh.
So there was this debate about whether to "question" the doctrines of God. Now ten years of school education were not wasted on me and whatever I learned from my Islamiat teacher was this: the word "Islam" means unconditional, unwavering and unquestioning subservience to the will of Allah (SWT). A very Taliban thing to say. But in my defense I have some examples that I would like to share. Nothing new really. Just something for people to ponder upon.

So We gave him tidings of a gentle son. (101) And when (his son) was old enough to walk with him, (Abraham) said: O my dear son, I have seen in a dream that I must sacrifice thee. So look, what thinkest thou? He said: O my father! Do that which thou art commanded. Allah willing, thou shalt find me of the steadfast. (102) Then, when they had both surrendered (to Allah), and he had flung him down upon his face, (103) We called unto him: O Abraham! (104) Thou hast already fulfilled the vision. Lo! thus do We reward the good. (105) (Al-Ahzab)

Unconditional surrender to the will of Allah (SWT). Subhan Allah. Then here is another example.

And when Moses said unto his people: Lo! Allah commandeth you that ye sacrifice a cow, they said: Dost thou make game of us? He answered: Allah forbid that I should be among the foolish! (67) They said: Pray for us unto thy Lord that He make clear to us what (cow) she is. (Moses) answered: Lo! He saith, Verily she is a cow neither with calf nor immature; (she is) between the two conditions; so do that which ye are commanded. (68) They said: Pray for us unto thy Lord that He make clear to us of what colour she is. (Moses) answered: Lo! He saith: Verily she is a yellow cow. Bright is her colour, gladdening beholders. (69) They said: Pray for us unto thy Lord that He make clear to us what (cow) she is. Lo! cows are much alike to us; and Lo! if Allah wills, we may be led aright. (70) (Moses) answered: Lo! He saith: Verily she is a cow unyoked; she plougheth not the soil nor watereth the tilth; whole and without mark. They said: Now thou bringest the truth. So they sacrificed her, though almost they did not. (71) (Al-Baqara)

There are several other examples that are pertinent in this matter. But this is definitely something to ponder upon, even for the "enlightened" moderates.

The argument in favor of questioning were verses that were taken out of context. I will list some examples below:

In the creation of the heavens and the earth and the alternation of night and day, there are signs for people with intelligence: those who remember God, standing, sitting and lying on their sides, and reflect on the creation of the heavens and the earth: Our Lord, You have not created this for nothing. Glory be to You! So safeguard us from the punishment of the Fire. (Surat Al ‘Imran: 190-191)

In the creation of the heavens and earth, and the alternation of the night and day, and the ships which sail the seas to people's benefit, and the water which God sends down from the sky – by which He brings the earth to life when it was dead and scatters about in it creatures of every kind – and the varying direction of the winds, and the clouds subservient between heaven and earth, there are Signs for people who use their intellect. ( Surat al-Baqara: 164)

Indeed, there are signs all around us that would strengthen our belief in the existence of one supreme being. And thats it. I have yet to see a verse where Allah has allowed the believers to question his authority.
As a Muslim I strongly believe that the boundaries of understanding are too limited. Allah (SWT), being all forgiving, wishes the best for me and for his followers. His commands are for our own good.

The Lost Symbol by Zaid Hamid

2009-10-04T11:55:00.003+06:00

Another typical Dan Brown (a.k.a Zaid Hamid) book. Like Angels and Demons and The Da Vinci code, the story begins in the evening and has to be over by next morning within which people would lose their loved ones or become permanently incapacitated and in the end make love to some hot middle aged chick. Gripping it is no doubt, but there was no need to stretch it beyond 500 hundred pages. His accounts of human emotions in death and near death experiences are bizarre.
This book, like The Da Vinci code, has made explicit reference to the notion that religious books like Quran, Torah and Bible have hidden, encrypted messages and they are the mysteries that are closely guarded by the Free Masons. Exactly the kind of stuff that would make Zaid Hamid drool in ecstacy.
The concept is not new, however. A lot of people have similar views in Islam. The ones who are interested in misinterpreting the vague and ambiguous details rather than submitting to what is obvious. I have had the pleasure of meeting such a gentleman myself. According to him the day of resurrection is more of a metaphor i.e. the day when the world will caese to exist the way we know it to. I wonder if that gentleman ever read Surah Al-Qaria or Surah Inshiqaq. I wonder what Allah meant when he says

The Calamity! (1) What is the Calamity? (2) Ah, what will convey unto thee what the Calamity is! (3) A day wherein mankind will be as thickly-scattered moths (4) And the mountains will become as carded wool. (5) Then, as for him whose scales are heavy (with good works), (6) He will live a pleasant life. (7) But as for him whose scales are light, (8) The bereft and Hungry One will be his mother, (9) Ah, what will convey unto thee what she is! - (10) Raging Fire. (11)

I wonder what Dan Brown would make of this. Calamity could be a metaphor for ............ party?

Menace that is media

2009-09-18T20:11:00.003+06:00

I have completely lost touch with the media. My only two sources of information remain Dawn and Business Recorder. That too only as long as they are reporting the facts. I don't read the editorial section any more. The journalists are not as unbiased as they their profession requires them to be. I get particularly pissed off when journalists venture into the realms of economics and finance.
TV has been worse. You flip through countless channels and yet all you are left with is Hamid Mir or Javed Chaudhry. One wonders what happened to those prodigies like Anwar Maqsood and Haseena Moin. I distinctly remember my days in the third grade when my family was in Dubai. Sharjah TV would show Pakistani dramas like Waaris, Aangan Terha, Ankahee, Dhoop Kinaray, etc. and Indians and Pakistanis alike would rush home. Those serials had some distinct characteristics; they focused on the middle and were picturised in Pakistan instead of Dubai, they were not as complicated as they are today and they were not inspired by "Kahani Ghar Ghar Ki" or Tara. Those were the good old days when media was strictly regulated. Now that it is not, I wonder how many people are watching the soaps on Geo or ARY.
As if this was not enough. We get to see our perverted politicians talking crap.

This kind of stuff often leaves one wondering whether he is the only one observing some standards of decency.

The story of Me: The Beginning

2009-09-07T22:44:00.008+06:00

Inspired by Krishan Chander"s book titled "Meri Yaadon Kay Chanaar"

Like any other life, mine too has been full of ups and downs, triumphs and defeat, pride and humility, guilt and repentance, happiness and misery. People are not born good or bad. They are what the events and their companions shape them. But if one were to view his life in retrospect, he would know what he gained and what he couldn't, what he learned and where he burned.
I was born in 1981 in the Seventh Day Adventist Hospital in Karachi to a middle class, moderate family. A year after my birth came my second brother who I would, for the sake of anonymity, call Fred. The same year, my dad, who is a professional accountant, got a job in Dubai.
Now I don't remember much of what it was like until I was 4 years old. My parents were all by themselves in a country that was alien and strange in every sense of the word. Unlike a lot of my maternal and paternal cousins we were not pampered by our grand parents and aunts and uncles. Now that I think about it, I am thankful to Allah (SWT) for the parents he gave me. Driving license is not easy to get in Dubai. And my dad did not get one for 3 years. My mother was not a driving kind at all and she is still not.
When I turned 4, i started making friends in the neighborhood. The earliest ones that I made were both Indian Muslims. One of them was Cameron and the other Ryan. That was the year when me and Ryan started school. My first day at school was an interesting one. No one went to drop me off. I was made to wear some strange clothes, called uniform, and handed over to Adnan bhai, another neighbor who was much older than me, and made to board the bus. Adnan bhai showed us (Ryan and me) to my class and introduced me to my first teacher Mrs. Madhu. Thus began my journey of enlightenment.
Unlike schools in Pakistan, this was a true English Medium school and being in Dubai, the ethnic and cultural diversity was phenomenal. There were Arabs, Indians, Pakistanis, Bengalis, Brits and Yanks. 2 years later Fred was admitted in the same school. Now I started a year ahead of my age whereas fred started at the right time.
Those years of blithe I will always miss. We would come home in the afternoon and my mom would make lunch and stuff us. And after that would put us to bed for an hour's nap. My dad use to come home for lunch too. Back in those days, Dubai use to close down for 2 hours for lunch and it was pointless to sit in the office. In the evening, my dad would head back to work whereas me and Fred would go out and play with our friends. Our entertainment came from picking on our lungi-clad watchman.
I still got a very vivid memory of when me and Fred went out to play and found our other friends in the front yard of a deserted house. They were plucking the fruit from the tree. We, obviously too young to understand what the fruit was, joined our friends and thought it would be a good idea if we could take home some and see what becomes of it. So we started stuffing them into our pockets. Out of nowhere comes the lungi-guy and chased us out of there. Little did he know that he was a moving target. We took cover in another yard and pelted him with the same fruit for which he had chased us.
Summers were wicked in Dubai. Most of the families would go to India or Pakistan in Summer Vacations. We did too, to endure long hours of load shedding, noise and air pollution. Carefree that we were at that age, we would hardly mind the landmark characteristics of Pakistan. We would play with our cousins, hang out with mamoo (my mom's only brother) and be pampered by our aunts and uncles.
It was one of these summers that I got to know my my paternal grand dad. He retired from SBP the same year I was born as a deputy director and went about teaching maths and biology to the less privileged kids in a mosque near his house. He stuck to this groove until 2002 when he met an accident which I will elaborate upon in some other post. All in all, he was a modest old gentleman who didn't speak much.
It was the summer of 1985 that we came to Pakistan and this time the intentions were to settle here for good. My mom got us admission into same lame ass school behind the old exhibition road. My father went back to Dubai to wind up[ things there. In November of the same year came my third brother who I would call Nash. And immediately after that my parents had a change of plans and they thought the time was not yet right to move into Pakistan. Really, grown-ups are weird most of the times.
Once back in Dubai, we went about our usual business. The same year we got a Bengali Molvi Sahib. This was another character we loved to pick on. Everytime he showed up at our place, he would break a branch of tree from outside our house to discipline us and before leaving, would hide the same under the sofa for the next day. It took us a couple of days to figure this out and then things started getting funnier. We would behave well when our parents were around and would make him sweat and run (literally that guy would chase us around the house) when our parents were not home. We tried everything on this guy like water guns, locking him in the toilet.............. I miss those days. I miss that Molvi Sahib.

Road to Democracy

2009-09-05T10:37:00.003+06:00

As one skims through the history of Pakistan, he is faced with the dilemma of what to believe and what not to. Another predicament would to segregate the guilty from the innocent. These quandaries are further exacerbated by the fact that the historians are not as unbiased as they should be. Nobody is, for that matter. Senior journalists have admitted, on various occasions, that they are not as unbiased as their profession requires them to be.
Whosoever took Pakistan studies in his high school years and read shahab nama later in his life would agree that there are a number of grey areas in there. Some of them have been or were locked away and some were never probed as they should have been. Hamood-ur-Rehman Commission Report would be an instance of the former and the 1990-94 genocide in Karachi of the latter.
The history of Pakistan has seen a chronic struggle for power between democratic institutions and the military, or at least what the books have to say. Democracy, however, has been barely there. Even the most ardent proponents of democracy failed to live upto the expectations of their followers and embarked upon a dictatorial journey, meeting their end on the way.
Having a degree in finance and career in banking and investment management, I will venture into a territory of political science and explore the fallacies and anomalies in a democratic set up (within Pakistan). Since I have been so bamboozled by this journey to democracy I googled “what is democracy” and here is what I found.

whatisdemocracy.net

Assuming this site is the right place to start, I would conclude that Pakistan is a democracy (for now) and that too a representative one. The same site goes on to elaborate that representative democracy is representative only as long as the constituencies are consulted on every major decision or else it becomes an elected dictatorship. Now isn’t this familiar?
My next stop was Wikipedia and without going into the history and evolution of this form of government, I was found the pre-requisites; rule of majority, freedom of speech, political expression, association and press. So now that I have a fool proof recipe for democracy, I find it very easy to conclude that its not just the military that has sabotaged the democratic process in this country. I will deal with every “ingredient” separately.
Rule of Majority: 70% illiteracy. And the feudal lords in rural Pakistan (who are also the democratically elected representatives) have made every effort to keep education as inaccessible as possible. I find it difficult to understand how a person should be allowed to decide the fate of his country when he can barely read or write. Moreover, this particular class has been used by their respective feudal lords on balloting days when votes are bought against “free aatay ki bori.”
Whatever we are left with the “educated class” happens to be a small group of greatest porn googlers.
Freedom of Speech: Now this is a right that, I don’t think a person is born with. A person should be granted this freedom only if he is worthy of being heard. Given the fact that more than half the population is illiterate, this right should be usurped right away.
Freedom of political expression: Did you think Zia-ul-Haq was bad? Think again. Bhutto did not allow his party to negotiate with Mujeeb-ur-Rehman. Benazir bitch and Nawaz not-so-Sharif went against MQM during their first tenures using everything they could; military, establishment, money, judiciary. This is not a secret anymore.
Freedom of press: Now this one does not any explanation. The press owes its freedom to a military dictator. And I cannot possibly forget the vendetta that was launched by Nawaz not-so-Sharif against the Jang group.

Now I am not a student of political science so I didn’t bother going into facts, figures and statistics. Instead, I had to rely more on my own memory. However, if someone could possibly convince me otherwise, please do so. Your comments and suggestions would not be censored and your families would not be intimidated or threatened.

Lucky Cement

2009-09-04T22:24:00.000+06:00

Last year's earning PKR 14.8 and current price is 73. The P/E is close to 5x. I have to rush into this one on Monday

Insanity

2009-08-08T21:47:00.003+06:00

Over the past week, my boss convinced me that enlightenment engenders humility and from ignorance spawns arrogance. He didn't mean to do that, its just something I realized.

Having worked with some of the leading financial institutions of the country, I am well-versed in the Treasury front, middle and back office functions. That would explain why I am heading the middle market desk. My boss on the other hand, having worked in consumer finance and recovery for most part of his career, barely knows anything about currency dealing, settlements and various risks inherent in the trading and banking book.

The harangue started as I was presenting a VaR model which was derived by a delta normal approach. Since the value at risk was being calculated for each currency separately, I suggested the amounts of risks from each currency be added together. My boss on the other hand argued (I am calling this an argument because one of my teachers told my class that argument is nothing more than an exchange of ignorance) that SINCE A LONG POSITION IN USD IS BEING USED TO HEDGE A SHORT POSITION IN THE JPY, the risk amount derived from both the currencies should be off set against each other. Unfortunately, the fun did not stop there. He went a little further in ridiculing and calling names and asking my other colleagues to explain to me why I was wrong. I just wished he had expressed his views in the ALCO meeting.

Needless to say, I don't think I will be sticking around here for long.

The same old debate

2009-07-05T19:49:00.002+06:00

I have had this debate on numerous occasions with different people. Most of them have been strongly indoctrinated by the belief that reading Quran is best done under supervision. For some reason a lot of them fear that the verses of Quran could be misleading. I, on the other hand, refer the following verse
This is the Scripture whereof there is no doubt, a guidance unto those who ward off (evil) (Verse 2:2)
There is nothing wrong with the book for Allah says so. This book is and will always be a guidance for those who believe and are righteous. A more pertinent question that arises now is what attributes would make a person righteous. For someone who has read the book knows the answer well.
It is not righteousness that ye turn your faces to the East and the West; but righteous is he who believeth in Allah and the Last Day and the angels and the Scripture and the prophets; and giveth wealth, for love of Him, to kinsfolk and to orphans and the needy and the wayfarer and to those who ask, and to set slaves free; and observeth proper worship and payeth the poor-due. And those who keep their treaty when they make one, and the patient in tribulation and adversity and time of stress. Such are they who are sincere. Such are the God-fearing. (Verse 177:2)
In this part of the world, Islam has been complicated beyond reason all thanks to the local clerics. The indoctrination of customs has been so strong that logic and reasoning is wasted. People tend to spend more time arguing on the length of the beard pyjama/trouser that they simply loose sight of the underlying problem which happens to be aqeedah.

Covered Interest Arbitrage

2009-06-28T02:57:00.003+06:00

Do a sell-buy in USD with spot rate at PKR 81 and 3 month forward at 83 which will create a USD liability maturing in 3 months. Take the PKR liquidity generated from the sell-buy into money market and earn 13% (on annualized basis). Walk away with 200 bps of clear arbitrage profits. Hows that?

Eureka!!!!!

2009-06-23T22:03:00.002+06:00

Went to work today with absolutely no intentions of accomplishing anything. But as I got there I realized that 1) I better get started on something important and 2) I just found out something that a lot of people don't understand.
So I started working on the market risk policy and simultaneously developing a spreadsheet based model of interest rate risk with scenario analysis. Turns out, interest rate risk is the most widely misunderstood thing. A balance sheet is one large swap book where banks borrow in one maturity band and lend in another. So the calculation of interest rate risk is nothing more than the revaluation of a basis swap with different levels of interest rates.
The primary inputs to this model would be the coupons on each asset/liability, the maturity/repricing date and the current levels of KIBOR for each maturity band.

Tamil Tigers just found a new profession

2009-06-20T16:17:00.000+06:00

I am sick of taxes

2009-06-17T19:33:00.003+06:00

There you go. I could not be more explicit. There are different theories as to what extent taxation can be beneficial and beyond which point any additional taxes will be detrimental to the GDP growth rate.

America has long enjoyed unrestricted access to debt from various sovereigns (China and KSA). Supporting these copious amounts of capital inflows is the unlimited taxing power of the US Congress. However, a careful analysis of this assumption would reveal that high levels of taxation take away the motivation to work. Put differently, if you know that the government will take away all your earnings to repay the debt and that you will not be getting anything back, you would prefer staying home.

Now that every one in the economy has decided to stay home and do nothing, I wonder how sharply would the GDP fall.

Anyways. What pisses me off the most is the indifference of the feudalist/legislators/senators/MNA's/MPA's towards the working middle class. Agriculture, which makes up close to 25% of our economy remains out of the tax net. Did somebody mention "broadening of tax base"? Does that mean massacre of the corporate working class of Karachi?

What's eating Rafi Usmani

2009-06-16T19:10:00.003+06:00

Dear Mr. Usmani,

This has reference to your crappy claim regarding JJ's Fatwa for Lay's Chips. For your information, it was not an edict. Edicts are needed where the interpretation of Hadith or a verse of Quran needed further elaboration. JJ was giving out the facts. Facts that the ingredients used were fit for consumption by the Muslims.

So why are you so pissed off. Perhaps because JJ happens to be far more popular than you? Or maybe that people prefer buying JJ's clothes over your books?

Regards,

SK

Muslim Women Should be Free to marry anyone they chose

2009-06-11T16:42:00.003+06:00

Now this one happened on the 6-7 June 2009. The panel consisted of 4 speakers, 2 favoring the motion and 2 against it. Two speakers who kept me from flipping the channel were Asra Noumani and Yasir Qadhi. I will discuss the former later and start with Yasir Qadhi, a Muslim cleric based in the US. Yasir was born to Pakistani parents in Texas. He got a degree in Chemical Engineering from Texas and then moved to the KSA to study Hadith and Theology. He is now doing PhD in Islamic Studies from Yale. In short, you have to be very careful when you confront him. He is smart.
Now Asra Noumani. A notorious feminist. Born to Indian parents in Mumbai. Thinks she is the only one free and women all over the world are subjugated and mere sex slaves. I would call her "a chip off the old block". Has got no clue what she is talking about yet will sympathize with women to get their votes. So desi. So Benazir.
Being a regular reader of muslimmatters.org, I found Yasir's perspective on the debate which was really interesting.

"I asked the producers what they meant by the motion. Did they mean that a Muslim lady had the freedom to not be forced into any marriage? In which case I could not oppose the motion, as Islamic law guarantees her the right to choose her spouse. Or did they mean that she had the right to marry anyone - including non-Muslims, and even other women (the wording of the motion clearly said anyone and not any man)? They responded that they meant it as it is - anyone!! Well, in that case, of course I opposed the motion. Islamic law does not allow a woman to marry a non-Muslim man, and of course same-sex marriages are prohibited as well!"

Needless to say, even he knew he was marked for death. Regardless of his position on the subject, what I did admire about Yasir was his ability to present facts and distinguish them from opinions. This was clearly missing in Asra's case. Since her ability to argue was driven by feminism, she was left with no other option but to resort to name-calling and getting personal.
One fundamental to follow before initiating a debate is to find some common grounds. In topics like these, the most appropriate grounds would be the religon itself along with the teachings of Quran and Sunnah. One can often argue on the interpretation in which case the opponents need to refer to Fiqah. Asra, it seems, had no understanding of how Islamic Jurisprudence works.
An interesting point that was brought in the debate, which surprisingly, had nothing to do with women, was freedom. Kudos again Yasir. I never thought it like that. We are indeed born free and are free citizens of this world. Yet not free enough to do whatever we wish. The religon does impose some restrictions upon us, not just women.

“Asra, a very simple and blunt question: would you allow a Muslim woman to marry another woman?” Her response was, as I expected, in the affirmative.

So there was nothing to agree upon in the first place. This argument had absolutely nothing to do with religon.

Here is more on the doha debates.

Something is not right

2009-06-08T19:30:00.001+06:00

Hell am I the only one who noticed that MCB is trading at a trailing multiple of 5.5. I think I am going for this one soon. Or no. I will wait for it to hit 120.

Profit Taking

2009-04-25T13:48:00.002+06:00

Sell lucky cement if it hits 63. OGDC trading at 75, is not a buy. Wait till it hits 80 and sell it. As for Engro Chemicals, there is a resistance at 155. Buying now at 147 could be a good trade. For as long as I have been following Engro, due to its volatility has more potentials for higher returns.

To print or not to print

2009-04-09T20:37:00.004+05:00

I can't stop enjoying the mess that US is going into. I mentioned in one of my previous posts that US has lost pretty much all of its manufacturing infrastructure. The services sector, too, has been outsourcing to India. This all adds up to bulging trade deficit. In a layman's term, the payments exceed receipts.
Whoever, trades with US, expects to be compensated in USD, which is not worth the paper it is printed upon. At least not any more. The argument of unlimited taxing power of the US congress is not valid anymore since the US government started using the Tax payers' money for corporate bailouts. Moreover, the monetary and banking system of the US is a chaos. Which brings us to question the credibility and stability USD based settlement system.
China, KSA and Russia, having large trade surpluses, hold major portions of their reserves in USD denominated assets. They are in just as big a mess as the US. Should the Fed start printing more greenbacks, financial institutions around the globe will be flushed with USD liquidity and USD will lose value.
Here is the most interesting part. Pakistan and other emerging market economies running trade deficits, stand to gain from this turmoil. In our case, the amount of reserves that we hold in USD assets are close to USD 8 billion (I need to verify this figure). On the other, our liabilities in USD are mush more than that. So when comes the time to repay, USD would be much less than PKR 80. Doesn't that make you feel good?
This is what a lot pf people would call "wishful thinking". And I won't disagree.

And they all fall down

2009-04-08T14:07:00.003+05:00

Stocks are back in business. The general market consensus earlier this year was close to 7500 points on KSE 100 index. This consensus was based on earnings multiple of 5-5.5.
Over the last couple of days, the market witnessed a convergence in KSE 100 and KSE 30 index. This was a clear indication of volume leaders being overpriced. At least that was the case with OGDC. I am specifically referring OGDC in my analysis because it constitutes a major portion in both KSE 30 and KSE 100.Trading at PKR 80, a triailing p/e of 7.5x in not justified yet. At least not as long as the rate on National Savings is hovering around 16%.
Going back to the convergence thing, we could all see that the volume leaders were overpriced and the liquidity was moving to less liquid stocks. I bought Nishat Chunian and Security Papers Ltd last week. One only had to read the writing on the wall. Correction was due and that was what happened today.
Given the composition of both the indices, there was a larger decline in KSE 30 index compared to KSE 100, because the composition of KSE 30 has more volume leaders.

I guess thats it for globalization

2009-04-07T14:22:00.003+05:00

I have had this feeling for a while now that the chances of America recovering from this turmoil are thin. And things get worse with every passing day. I was reading this article by Fareed Zakaria the other day which is a practical application of game theory. Should Uncle Sam consider rocking the boat, he should assess the wide scale retaliation from across the Atlantic.
It's simple. Should America impose tarrifs to restrict imports, Europeans will follow suit. The consequences for both will be different however. Americans have already lost much of their industrial infrastructure. The rust belt will do the explaining for me. They dont have much of tangible goods to export. Whatever little remains will be gone as well. This loss of exports will make the chronic trade deficit................more chronic. The loss of jobs in the upstream and downstream industries will add to the miseries of already miserable American economy.
But as I think about it more, things seem bleaker for US. Assuming that Globalization goes belly-up and paves way for protectionism, the next question would be how would the Americans meet their own demands. This seemingly insignificant question could expose the fallcies of capitalism.
As I mentioned above, Americans have pretty much lost all their manufacturing infrastructure. Manufacturing is not their thing any more. What ever they make is either crappy or high priced or both. I will let the automobile industry do the talking here.
Another challenge that they need to deal with is the wage rate. How else can you possibly explain the loss of jobs to India and China. Every major software company has moved some part of its operations to India. China, on the the other hand takes care of the tangible needs. I dont have to explain the differences in the income and living standards. American workers are over paid. Its not just the bankers and wall street professionals.
The final link is the level of debt and consumption. US happens to be a consumption driven economy. Which means not only are they overpaid, but also over-borrowed and over spent.
Given these problems US economy is treaded on a path where chaos and mayhem will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. First, the goods they make are of inferior quality and higher priced (because of higher comparitive wage rates). This could lead to 2 outcomes. Either people will alter their spending patterns drastically. Or they could simply stick to their previous trends and borrow even more to spend even more. It doesn't matter what choice they make, they will end up worse off.
The only workable option that is available to the US is to stick to that globalization policy and revise their minimum wage law. A plumber making US$ 200,000 is absurd.