Wednesday, April 8, 2009

And they all fall down

Stocks are back in business. The general market consensus earlier this year was close to 7500 points on KSE 100 index. This consensus was based on earnings multiple of 5-5.5.
Over the last couple of days, the market witnessed a convergence in KSE 100 and KSE 30 index. This was a clear indication of volume leaders being overpriced. At least that was the case with OGDC. I am specifically referring OGDC in my analysis because it constitutes a major portion in both KSE 30 and KSE 100.Trading at PKR 80, a triailing p/e of 7.5x in not justified yet. At least not as long as the rate on National Savings is hovering around 16%.
Going back to the convergence thing, we could all see that the volume leaders were overpriced and the liquidity was moving to less liquid stocks. I bought Nishat Chunian and Security Papers Ltd last week. One only had to read the writing on the wall. Correction was due and that was what happened today.
Given the composition of both the indices, there was a larger decline in KSE 30 index compared to KSE 100, because the composition of KSE 30 has more volume leaders.

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