Tuesday, April 7, 2009

I guess thats it for globalization

I have had this feeling for a while now that the chances of America recovering from this turmoil are thin. And things get worse with every passing day. I was reading this article by Fareed Zakaria the other day which is a practical application of game theory. Should Uncle Sam consider rocking the boat, he should assess the wide scale retaliation from across the Atlantic.
It's simple. Should America impose tarrifs to restrict imports, Europeans will follow suit. The consequences for both will be different however. Americans have already lost much of their industrial infrastructure. The rust belt will do the explaining for me. They dont have much of tangible goods to export. Whatever little remains will be gone as well. This loss of exports will make the chronic trade deficit................more chronic. The loss of jobs in the upstream and downstream industries will add to the miseries of already miserable American economy.
But as I think about it more, things seem bleaker for US. Assuming that Globalization goes belly-up and paves way for protectionism, the next question would be how would the Americans meet their own demands. This seemingly insignificant question could expose the fallcies of capitalism.
As I mentioned above, Americans have pretty much lost all their manufacturing infrastructure. Manufacturing is not their thing any more. What ever they make is either crappy or high priced or both. I will let the automobile industry do the talking here.
Another challenge that they need to deal with is the wage rate. How else can you possibly explain the loss of jobs to India and China. Every major software company has moved some part of its operations to India. China, on the the other hand takes care of the tangible needs. I dont have to explain the differences in the income and living standards. American workers are over paid. Its not just the bankers and wall street professionals.
The final link is the level of debt and consumption. US happens to be a consumption driven economy. Which means not only are they overpaid, but also over-borrowed and over spent.
Given these problems US economy is treaded on a path where chaos and mayhem will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. First, the goods they make are of inferior quality and higher priced (because of higher comparitive wage rates). This could lead to 2 outcomes. Either people will alter their spending patterns drastically. Or they could simply stick to their previous trends and borrow even more to spend even more. It doesn't matter what choice they make, they will end up worse off.
The only workable option that is available to the US is to stick to that globalization policy and revise their minimum wage law. A plumber making US$ 200,000 is absurd.

No comments:

Post a Comment